A newly released CNN poll out of Iowa suggests that Mitt Romney is once again in the lead ahead of Ron Paul going into the caucuses. However, it is fundamentally flawed in that it does not take into account independent and Democratic voters.
The poll is making headlines today with other media outlets, such as The Huffington Post, claiming that Romney is once again on top in Iowa, having taken the lead from Paul.
That means that independent and Democratic voters, who are easily able to register or re-register as Republicans at the caucus site, have been excluded from the survey.
As we have previously highlighted, a significant chunk of Ron Paul’s support is coming from independent and Democratic voters.
A d v e r t i s e m e n t
In a recent NBC News/Marist poll, Paul was the only GOP contender to lead in a head to head with Obama among independent voters. Paul also attracted 15 percent of Iowa’s Democrats according to the survey.
As Silver also points out, entrance polls in Iowa in 2008 indicated that roughly 15 percent of participants in the Republican caucus identified themselves as independents or Democrats on the way into the caucus site.
More telling is the poll also released this week by Public Policy Polling, which found that Ron Paul is in the lead in Iowa with 24 percent to Romney’s 20 percent. That survey estimated that 24 percent of potential Iowa caucus participants are currently registered as independents or Democrats and will re-register as Republicans before voting.
“The CNN poll is quite simply missing these voters and therefore will probably underestimate Mr. Paul’s support, perhaps by several percentage points.” Silver explains.
- Ron Paul’s Support Is Much More Widespread Than Reported by John Keller (gunnyg.wordpress.com)
- Ron Paul Makes Appeal To Iowa Moderates And Undecided Voters (huffingtonpost.com)
- ‘Mischief’ voters push Paul to front of GOP race (gunnyg.wordpress.com)
- New Iowa Poll May Understate Paul’s Support (fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com)
- Bill Schneider: Paul’s Power Play in Iowa — But What’s Next? (huffingtonpost.com)